Market Report 15.09.2023

What happened this week

The week was actually in line with expectations and evasive of hopes. The ideal situation would have been a continuation of the same momentum we had seen since the Shanghai fair. Unfortunately, this did not quite materialise as one might have hoped in order to then take the momentum with us to Milan. The week began like all the others had done for some time before. There were very quick responses to the lists of offers to Asia and these too were an exact copy of the past. Every offer that aroused interest was met with bids well below the asking price. Even as a standard ritual, the prices were US $ 2-3 below the offers made and either low grades were interested at very low prices or the heavier, female skins well below the magic limit of US $ 30. This week it was much more difficult to come to an agreement. In the end, it has to be said that there was not much left from the bids at the end of the week. The catch that remained in the net was very small and most of the fish slipped out of the net again. In the end, it was really only caused by our stubbornness in the negotiations and the attempt to test how far the willingness and need to buy really is in China. With a little more flexibility, it would certainly have been possible to achieve significantly more sales during the week. Well then, finally it was it’s like with children who like to test their limits and are then surprised when their parents don’t play along. From our point of view, not much happened in Europe. That’s hardly surprising, because all eyes are now on the trade fair in Milan and, as is so often the case, some are obviously hoping for the big turnaround and the big events for a better future. We won’t get ahead of the spectacle and let ourselves be surprised. In any case, we can already say that the number of visitors (not necessarily exhibitors) will probably be much higher. The Chinese will be able to travel again and many have announced that they will come. At the same time, one has the impression that people from all over the world are looking for the way to Milan to find the Philosopher’s Stone or at least to consult the Oracle of Delphi. Even though there will probably be no one there who can reliably predict the future, a lot of emotion and information will almost certainly be taken back home, and these are, as we know for our trade, the more than facts decisive parameters for assessing the situation and the markets. Without question, the internet cannot even begin to replace yet the value and impact of face-to-face meetings and conversations. Thus, a week comes to an end that can be described as relatively quiet. This has relatively little relevance; the real decisions for the winter half-year will only be made in the coming weeks.

The kill

The kill is slowly but steadily increasing. Whether this is really due to an increasing demand for meat remains unclear. Of course, in the meantime the school holidays have come to an end in all federal states and with them a large number of holidaymakers have returned. This is of course helpful for the basic business and the basic demand, but the time of increasing meat consumption has not yet come. Nevertheless, the trend is clear. Taking the weather into account the kill will slowly but steadily increase until the Christmas season.

What do we expect

We do not need to repeat ourselves at this point. The fair next week will certainly, one way or another, trigger a reassessment of the market situation. The parameters available so far are not positive. However, hope dies last and it would not be the first time that one departs with pessimism and heads home with great confidence. So why not this time? However, there is one thing that one should probably rid oneself of in advance. The logic that a positive impression is synonymous with rising prices in the long term is still not valid in our view for a variety of very rational reasons. Otherwise, we hope that we can learn that our customers are doing well despite all adversities and that, under the given conditions, stable demand, secured deliveries and paid invoices await us in the coming months.