As was to be expected, the market went into a pause mode this week. For the European suppliers with the majority of their customers in Europe, the contracts for the month of March have largely been concluded and therefore the pressure to negotiate on both sides has disappeared for the time being. Most of the goods have been sold as well as bought. At the moment there are no extraordinary stocks of raw material pressing on the sellers‘ side and so they are busy cultivating the market and prices. Of course, people are already thinking about the discussions and negotiations at the slaughterhouses as well as in sales for the following months. However, this does not solve the decisive problem, namely how the demand for leather and the demand in the leather industry will develop in the coming months. In the last few months, there were always new arguments and changes that supported prices and demand. On the one hand, there was the market for limesplits, on the other hand, there was the reopening in China, which always led to an improvement in sentiment without leading to a real change in the fundamentals. In the last few weeks, the BSE case in Brazil had to be used then to improve sentiment. In Europe it is hard to believe in a significant change in demand. Neither for the better nor for the worse. The lower kill in January and February compensated for part of the demand problem for the time being. However, with the production now recovering, this must now be thought about again. As long as possible surpluses can flow to other

markets at European prices, there is no problem. But at the moment it doesn’t seem as if other overseas markets would enthusiastically accept a supply at the current prices. That would only happen if surprising and larger orders for leather were suddenly placed, or if retail sentiment improves. Much will also depend on whether and how raw hides  flows reorient themselves due to the extreme shift in production costs of late. Whichever way you look at it, the leather industry is currently in a really extreme phase of renewed changes as they always happen in about of a decades time. Business this week has been very quiet. In Europe, all was done with regular customers and there was honestly little interest coming in from overseas that was worth getting the calculator out for. So all that was left was the one-off business possible each week, arising from specific enquiries or coincidences. We also see a big problem in the fact that at the moment the idea of how prices will develop in the future is very far apart. The sellers are trying everything to keep prices at least stable, while the buyers are firmly convinced that prices should and must move downwards again. The positions are so cemented at the moment that it will be interesting to see what the trigger will be to confirm one or the other position in the end.

The kill

The kill has recovered in March from its lows of the first two months. Nothing spectacular or special, but numbers are at seasonally normal levels. Nevertheless, the problem remains that the meat demand and price situation has not really improved.

What do we expect

We lack the imagination to imagine what could fundamentally change in the next week. Unrest of various kinds is everywhere at the moment. This is usually not a good basis for an improvement in sentiment and the situation, while at the same time there is no real trigger for a new trend in any direction. The only certainty is that it will indeed come at some point and probably and as so often from a direction that is not even on the monitor today.