Market Report 10.01.2025
Osterhorn, Friday, 10.01.2025
The US $ in EURO: 1,0240
What happened this week
The start to the new year continues to be very quiet. This does not come as a particular surprise, as the situation in Europe remains very difficult and people in Asia are preparing for the holidays at the end of this month. This means that there is still only very selective interest and greater activity will probably only develop again when the discussions about the new delivery programmes in Europe are due in the coming weeks. Asia remains a mystery, as it is still not at all clear what the leather industry there is planning for the coming months. There are simply too many uncertainties, especially in China. The change of presidency in America naturally plays a decisive role here. In general, however, we are also hearing that some larger sports shoe manufacturers are scaling back their orders and plans for the coming period moderate slightly from the previous year’s announcements and plans. In the furniture industry, the current season is actually already almost over, even though production should still be running at full capacity for another 2-3 months. However, since the order volume of previous years was never reached anyway, it doesn’t really matter. Business in the automotive industry has been sluggish and no major impetus is to be expected here either. In China, the weak development of the Chinese currency is also playing a major role, and when all of this is stirred into a cocktail, it is hard to believe that any major surprises or positive developments are on the horizon. The next major and possibly decisive event is the next Lineapelle fair in Milan. By then, the holidays in Asia will be behind us, the new president in America will be in office and in Europe there will be no avoiding the fact that the industry will be taking a serious look at its plans for the future. Whatever that means in the end. The news today that there have been cases of foot and mouth disease in a small buffalo herd in eastern Germany is very problematic and annoying. We can only hope that the necessary measures are taken immediately to prevent the disease from spreading and remain an isolated case. That would of course be fatal for export sales opportunities. Sales this week were again limited to random transactions and it was again not easy to synchronise price ideas from buyers and sellers. Somehow, a certain paralysis has spread across the market in every respect. This applies not only to buying and selling activities, but also to price developments.
The kill
After the long weeks in which slaughtering was severely affected by the public holidays, activity is now picking up again and has returned to normal levels this week. Volumes are lower than in the last quarter, but it is winter and this is the time of higher beef demand in our region. Slaughter is expected to fall slightly this year, which is probably mainly due to a somewhat reduced herd.
What do we expect
Even if it has become very boring to always forecast the same thing, we simply lack any convincing argument at the moment that could make any significant difference to the fundamental market situation. So far, we have been right. Firstly, we need to monitor the situation surrounding the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. Fortunately, the region is not a particularly densely populated livestock area and therefore slaughtering and production should not be affected in the short term. However, it will probably have little impact on the market as a whole and we therefore do not expect any major changes in the coming week.
Price Table
Type | Weight range | Avg. green weight | Salted weight | Avg. weight salted | Price per kg | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ox | Heifers | 15/24,5 kg | 22,0/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 0,75 | Weakish |
25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,65 | Stable | |
Dairy cows | 15/24,5 kg | 22,5/23,5 kg | 13/22 kg | 20/21 kg | € 0,50 | Steady |
25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,50 | Steady | |
30/+ kg | 33,5/35,5 kg | 27/+ kg | 29/31 kg | € 0,50 | Steady | |
Bulls | 25/29,5 kg | 27,5/28,5 kg | 22/27 kg | 25/26 kg | € 0,90 | Steady |
30/39,5 kg | 36,0/37,0 kg | 24/34 kg | 31/33 kg | € 0,90 | Steady | |
40/+ kg | 45,0/48,0 kg | 34/+ kg | 38/40 kg | € 0,95 | Steady | |
Thirds | 15/+ kg | 25,0/27,5 kg | 13/+ kg | 24/26 kg | € 0,40 | Steady |
Thirds bulls | 30/+ kg | 38,0/40,0 kg | 24/+ kg | 33/36 kg | € 0,45 | Steady |